MD_DA127

     Whole Milk Powder - Oceania

     Report 43 - Released on October 22, 2020


     The Oceania whole milk powder price range is mixed, with a slight increase at the low end
     and a slight decrease at the high end. The price adjustment is negligible. New Zealand dairy
     manufacturers and buyers tend to expect WMP markets in the near term to be generally steady.
     It is noted that this week�s GDT offering volumes match previous forecasts which contributed
     to slight price movement.

     Looking ahead, observers say that volumes previously planned for spring 2021 sale will be
     shifted to December and January contracts. This is being done to better meet market demand
     cycles. Seasonal GDT offering volumes are currently anticipated to peak in November.

     Many analysts expect WMP prices to be steady to slightly higher in the short term.
     Underlying this view is concern about weather turning dry, coupled with moving beyond the
     peak production period. Those factors drive the pricing projection. Prices easing below
     $3,000 in early 2021 would not surprise these analysts. Substantial seasonal WMP inventory
     has already shipped out of New Zealand. As stocks decline in line with lower seasonal
     production, some manufacturers expect pricing to strengthen again by Q3 of 2021. At least,
     that assumption is in play in contracting negotiations.


     Prices for: Oceania, All First Sales, Free on Board - Port, Conventional, and Edible Whole
     Milk Powder
     Price Range - 26% Butterfat; $/MT:                     2,975 - 3,100


     Information for the period October 12 - 23, 2020, issued biweekly

     Secondary Sourced Information:


     Seasonal SMP exports from Australia July � August 2020, 13,368 MT, increased 27.4 percent
     from July � August 2019 according to Dairy Australia.

     WMP exports from New Zealand January � August 2020, 228,000 MT, decreased 5.7 percent from
     January � August 2019 according to CLAL data made available to USDA.

     At GDT event 270 on October 20, the WMP all contracts price, $3,037, increased 0.3 percent.
     The November contract was $3,100.




     Published by:
     Dairy Market News - Madison, WI
     Eric Graf, 608.422.8590
     Email: Eric.Graf@usda.gov

     Additional Dairy Market News Information:
     Dairy Market News (DMN) by Phone: (608)422-8602
     DMN Website: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy
     DMN MARS (My Market News): https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov